What we are witnessing is the death of a Civilization. Whatever will emerge from this war will have as little to do with the past as Modern China does with Taoism. Ukraine and Russia are like wrestlers caught in a moment of absolute tension. To the outside both appear to be unmovable and unmoving but internally muscles and sinews pop and stretch. When one fighter falters the fight will end before we even know what happened. There will not be time to rush to the aid of Ukraine if they break first
Germany 1918:
On November 3rd, 1918 German sailors in Kiel revolted against order from the government to launch a suicidal attack on the British Grand Fleet. Quickly spreading out from their naval base they seized control of the town and issued on November 5th a proclamation outlining 14 points. The full list can be found here but they represented a clear call for socialism and an end to the fighting.
Internally the German government had already abandoned hope of a military victory; across Europe the armies of her and her allies were disintegrating. Thousands starved and a repeat of the Turnip Winter appeared to be unfolding before them as grain from Russia - which had collapsed just months prior - proved less forthcoming than anticipated. Ludendorff - the effective military dictator of Germany - just weeks earlier in a gradually unfolding political disaster effectively abandoned control of the state throwing responsibility to the SPD. Only an appeal to America and the Principles of Utopian Liberalism outlined under Wilson could avoid Germany itself being carved and reduced. Inheriting the worst political situation imaginable the SPD were trapped between two realities. First, Germany as a nation was collapsing around them and second, in March of 1918 they had secured the dream of Ostsiedlung and finally opened up the East for Germany.
Across the country news of the success of the revolt in Kiel spread like wildfire. Cities caught aflame turned to these new socialist councils as a path out of hell. Every vestige of the old world had been pulverized at Verdun and the people clamored for change. German delegations desperate to stop the fighting and avoid the catastrophe that appeared to be unfolding in Russia signed an armistice. The result was a victory in the East and total defeat in the West. Chaos bred chaos and within a season the Germany of Fredrick the Great and Bismark died.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” - Lenin
Eastern Europe 2024:
As it stands Russia and Ukraine are both slipping towards what a YouTube channel I watch refers to as a “1918 moment”; where the accumulated pressure of war simply breaks the society. As Western attention has shifted from the atrocities of Bucha to the bombing of Gaza and the horror of 10.7 it is easy to imagine the pace of the fighting has slowed; this is false. Despite little progress on the front the war is still in full swing. Towns like Bakhumt - which even the most geographically inclined could never have identified on a map - have become the focal point of a conflict where millions are engaged in a death grip. At stake is a Civilization battered and broken at war over its identity. Tucker Carlson’s recent interview with Putin should raise the degree to which this war is one of ideology. Where any negotiated peace similar to those bandied around by characters like Vivek would simply give time for the Russians to rearm and reinvade.
However, to the men - many of them old - dying in cities like Adivka philosophical questions like if Orthodox Civilization represents a distinct project from the West do not even register. Instead men fight for the same reason they always have. Home, Family, Fear, and Honor.
The simple truth though is that both Russia and Ukraine are societies which were permanently rotted by Homo Sovieticus and decades of Soviet misrule. These are not civilizations in the apex of their power like Europe in 1914 destined to self destruct. Instead they are the failed husks of a Civilization which threw every hope and aspiration into the always hungry maw of communism only to be met with decay and corruption. In Ukraine peasant armies like those seen in the Middle East grind against each other lacking the sophistication of even WW1. Economically the scale of social decay is difficult to articulate. Between 1989 and 2022 real GDP per capita denominated in 2015 $’s in Ukraine fell from ~$3,300 to ~$2,000. Reaching a low of ~$1,300 in 1998. By contrast during this same period Botswana rose from ~$3,300 to ~$6,700. The Dominican Republic rose from ~$3,700 to ~$8,700. India exploded from ~$500 to ~$2,100 - passing Ukraine. All of this data comes from the World Bank and can be accessed here. Video evidence of post-Soviet decay can be found easily online. Channels like Bald and Bankrupt document a society of rotting concrete tenements. Within both countries a narrow group of elites have replaced the old Soviet central planner. All pretense of equality has been abandoned and symbols of their theft litter the society.
The response to this among the population has been clear. Despite non-stop coverage in the West of Ukrianians fighting for their survival In February 2022 as Russian armies poured into Ukraine and Zalesnky heroically stood his ground in Kiev, millions of young Ukrainian citizens simply got up and left. To see this simply examine the population pyramid of Ukraine between 2021 and 2023.
Both of these graphs can be accessed here.
Note: This is not caused by deaths. According to Ukrainian figures in late 2023 only 70,000 Ukrainians had died in the war. Per the NYT. Recently Ukraine claimed to have lost only 31,000 men. In reality the numbers are probably much higher, but Ukraine is missing millions of young people who simply did not die on the front.
A similar although much less pronounced dynamic has taken place in Russia with professionals fleeing the country almost always for Western democracies. Without good survey evidence it is difficult to tell but my intuition is that the effect in Russia is less pronounced because of the nature of Russian military recruiting. In particular rather than doing a true Levée en masse Russia has purposefully recruited from ethnic minorities. Right now the balance appears to be in Russia's favor but war has a way of surprising everyone. It is easy to forget that this summer Russian state collapse was narrowly avoided through negotiating Prigozhin’s surrender. His death has ruled out anything but a violent resolution to the next mutiny.
What we are witnessing is the death of a Civilization. Whatever will emerge from this war will have as little to do with the past as Modern China does with Taoism. Ukraine and Russia are like wrestlers caught in a moment of absolute tension. To the outside both appear to be unmovable and unmoving but internally muscles and sinews pop and stretch. When one fighter falters the fight will end before we even know what happened. There will not be time to rush to the aid of Ukraine if they break first.
A Promise to the Future:
And yet I am - along with most Americans - resolutely pro Ukraine. I want to emphasize here I’m not pro the Ukrainian government. With the notable exception of not fleeing they have shown themselves to be little more than a den of thieves intent on robbing the country blind. Hesitancy on the part of Western journalism to cover this truth does not change the reality. I’m pro Ukraine because I believe in the principles Wilson outlined in his famous 14 points and which were applied globally after WW2. Namely, I believe in a national right to self determination, but I reject a Utopian understanding of this right. Freedom is a market commodity which is bought through a willingness to defend it. Ukraine, like all other people, nations, and countries has a right to fight for its independence. Even as millions of Ukrianians have fled, millions more every day people have stood their ground. As we inch closer to the ability to permanently remove ourselves from this world - for good by exploring the stars or for bad by destroying ourselves - we must reject the parochial chauvinism of the past. A Russian victory in this war would send a global message that the world that existed between 1990 and today is over. That once again we are thrown into the reality of interstate anarchy where morality does not appeal to a higher notion of the good but only to the barrel of a gun. We have been dealt a spectacular hand by the Past, and it is difficult to imagine how the 20th century could have ended better. To throw this aside would be a disaster. Like the inhabitants of every Golden Age we have an obligation to future generations to nurture what we have. Thus, we must support Ukraine in this war and more importantly we must make clear that the Ukraine that existed in 2022 has died. We must postpone a 1918 moment in Ukraine for as long as possible, not by turning Ukraine into a police state but by arming it with the financial and military resources it requires to fight.
Although the rules based world order has glaring hypocrisies including a permanent enshrinement of special right for the victors of WW2, the developing world - which has largely been neutral towards this war for individually rational reasons - should consider closely what a world ruled by a Nietzschean will to power would look like. For most they need only look at what their county was like in 1939. Under what other system could Mexico make demands of America than the one which exists. The transition from anarchy to an imperfect world order has allowed vast collective prosperity; returning to anarchy would mark the end of this era. Even if this war lasts for a decade and even if America stands alone in supporting Ukraine, as long as they are willing to fight, we must be willing to arm them. Not for us but for the Future.
