One of the defining relationships of the 21st century will be that between India and the United States. Having overcome the “hesitations of history”, the world’s oldest and largest democracies have finally embraced each other in pursuing stronger ties across defense, trade, science, and many other spheres.
However, for the partnership to escape the trap of empty rhetoric and truly deliver, it must be guided by a cohesive vision. Such a vision must outline the most consequential areas of cooperation which maximize the returns for both partners and the world at large.
The Dragon In The Room
The most immediate force accelerating this relationship – and its most pressing challenge – is the rise of China. It is true that there are deeper areas of common ground such as shared democratic values, but this was true throughout the Cold War yet relations remained estranged. China’s rise is the key catalyst in overcoming those hesitations of history, and managing it is the area in which US and Indian interests most closely align.
The US increasingly views China as the “most consequential threat” to its national security. Technological competition between the two in fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing is fierce, while greater Chinese assertiveness in East and South East Asia impacts US treaty allies such as Japan and the Philippines. India faces its own border dispute with China, which in 2020 saw violence for the first time in 45 years. India must also contend with Chinese efforts to cultivate influence in the Indian Ocean region through its String of Pearls strategy. Most critical is the potential threat of war over Taiwan whose impacts will be global and catastrophic. Even without war, Chinese economic domination of Asia would mean control over the world’s most consequential markets as Asia today accounts for 46% of global GDP (PPP). With Asia’s global weight set to rise even more in the coming years, neither the US nor India can afford to have terms dictated to them in this region.
As in 1972, when Nixon opened relations with China to undermine the Soviets, it is again in the US interest to deepen relations with India and to cultivate it as a counterweight to China. A more economic and militarily powerful India can prevent China from focusing its full attention on the western Pacific. Likewise, India also needs the US engaged to keep China occupied. A US focused on Asia and the Pacific will prevent China from dominating India in the Himalayas. In this way, a US-India partnership can bind China in a two-front conundrum.
Here, we must note that India and the US will never be formal treaty allies. Unlike countries in Europe or East Asia, India is simply too large and independent to subsume its military and freedom of action under an American Supreme Allied Commander. This means that just as the US isn’t directly involved in the India-China border conflict, so too would India not take direct part in a Taiwan conflict. Despite this, cooperating with India is still in the US interest, simply because it has more military capacity than any other traditional US ally. According to GFP, India ranks fourth in military strength after the US, Russia, and China. Its strength is projected to rise as India remains the world’s top arms importer, as illustrated by its recent purchase of 31 MQ-9B SeaGuardian Drones from the US. India’s growing military capacity means that unlike traditional US allies, it is capable of defending itself and also projecting power. This capacity sets the stage for a more flexible and reciprocal type of cooperation. For instance, the US has provided intelligence on Chinese troops on the Himalayan border. India could reciprocate by taking a greater role in providing security in the Indian Ocean to free up US resources for East Asia. Such arrangements are win-win and don’t require lumbering formal alliance commitments.
Trade & Mutual Prosperity
Beyond the immediate challenges posed by China, over the long term both the US and India stand to gain from deeper economic cooperation. This is again a win-win situation. India, owing to structural reforms, is today the world’s fastest growing major economy. However, it still requires extensive investment to fuel its economic growth which the US can provide. A critical part of this from India’s perspective is technology transfer to accelerate modernisation, like the agreement to jointly produce F414 fighter jet engines between GE and Hindustan Aerospace. The US can become a leading investor in India’s economic rise, following the footsteps of its Quad partner Japan.
On the other side, the US needs partners to implement its economic “derisking” strategy and decouple supply chains from China. India will form a key component of this, as it is the only economy that can remotely hope to compete with China in size. From the perspective of the private sector, the opportunity to enter the vast Indian consumer market while hedging geopolitical risk from China is a great opportunity. So far, Apple’s increasing manufacturing footprint in India is the best example of this.
Nor can US investors looking for returns in an uncertain world ignore Indian markets. One curious feature of China’s rise is how little of the value created was relayed to investors. Since 2000, China’s GDP has grown by roughly 18x. Over that same period, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has only doubled, while the Hang Seng Index is mostly unchanged. Compare this with India, where GDP has grown by ~8x while the benchmark SENSEX index has grown by ~16x. Just recently, the Indian stock market overtook Hong Kong’s to become the world’s fourth largest. As Indian growth accelerates and India inserts itself into global value chains, Indian markets will look increasingly attractive to US investors.
Open Societies & Civilisational Exchange
The above spheres are pragmatic areas of cooperation which make sense as long as interests are aligned. However, a less transactional and ultimately more powerful dimension will be the organic people-to-people cultural exchange between these two countries.
When asked what the “greatest political fact of modern times” was, Otto von Bismarck is said to have noted “the inherited and permanent fact that North America speaks English”. In this century, one could say that the analogue is the fact that India speaks English. To be sure, only ~10% of Indians speak English, but that itself is about 140 million people, easily making it the second largest English speaking population in the world. This number will only rise as Indians get richer and learn English to improve their economic prospects. Crucially, English fluency is much higher amongst the elites who shape culture and politics. For example, it is easy to find Indian politicians delivering speeches and engaging in debates with a command of English better than many native Anglophones. The presence of English, particularly among the elites, makes it exponentially easier for Americans to interact with and learn about India. It also makes it easy for Indians to plug themselves into the global exchange of ideas and make their voice heard. Contrast this with China, where less than 1% or only about 10-20 million speak English. It is no surprise then why Chimerica was purely an economic relationship with little cultural exchange. By contrast, a shared language can allow Indiamerica to develop a genuine cultural element.
A shared language is necessary but not sufficient for cultural exchange. Crucially, unlike China, India is also an open society, which is the second prerequisite. Indians are not isolated behind a Great Firewall. They are on the same open internet as everyone. Nor are they muzzled by an omnipotent state, as a look at the chaotically vibrant Indian press will show. Indian media is widely and easily available for anyone who wants a glimpse into Indian culture, in contrast with Chinese culture which is closely guarded by the Communist Party of China. Americans require Mandarin-fluent seers to interpret the propaganda that filters through the Great Firewall just to get a glimmer of Chinese public sentiment. By contrast, they can have a front seat to foundational civilisational debates of contemporary India simply through a YouTube search, without needing to learn any new languages. This means that just as American ideas and culture have been absorbed by a nontrivial proportion of Indians, so too Indian ideas can be easily absorbed by Americans. As India grows richer, interest in it will naturally rise, which will facilitate this exchange. Unlike with China, democratic India’s rise will be raucous, chaotic, and transparent for all to see and engage with.
The importance of India and the US being open societies with a shared language cannot be overstated. What makes this especially powerful is that both countries fundamentally belong to different civilisations. This means that their openness and shared language can act as a conduit for a grand civilisational exchange of ideas. Just as India has been introduced to ideas from Western civilisation such as habeas corpus, so too has the West learned about ideas from Indian civilisation like yoga and karma. As the relationship deepens, such exchange will also deepen. It is for this reason that both countries should prioritize people-to-people contact.
This may be the first time in modern history that the conditions are ripe for such a civilisational exchange of ideas between the leading and a rising power. At the turn of the 20th century, Britain and the US both shared language, but were part of the same civilisation. At the turn of the 21st, the US and China shared neither language nor civilisation. The US and India share language yet represent different civilisations. Vitally, both are free societies open to new ideas. The potential for a grand cross-pollination of ideas, catalysed by forces like the Indian diaspora in the US and the open internet, is truly unquantifiable. More than the compulsions of shared security threats and economic imperatives, this will be the undercurrent that binds the American and Indian people in a lasting manner.
Even though India and the US will never be treaty allies, there is no doubt that they are “natural allies”. While the rise of China is the immediate catalyst for bringing these two countries together, there are more positive longer term structural reasons that make the partnership sustainable. The immense potential for mutual economic prosperity is one. The strong people-to-people ties, marked by shared values and open societies, is another. Over time, common values, cultural exchange, and booming trade will pick up the baton from Chinese aggression in ensuring that the India-US partnership becomes one of the defining relationships of the 21st century.
